How risk scoring works — and what it can't tell you
The label table
Your label comes from the distance to the nearest lab-confirmed detection, plus quarantine status:
| Nearest lab-confirmed detection | Quarantine | Label |
|---|---|---|
| < 1 km | any | HIGH |
| 1–5 km | any | ELEVATED |
| 5–15 km | yes / no | MODERATE / LOW-MODERATE |
| > 15 km | yes / no | LOW / NO NEARBY DETECTIONS |
Recency cap: if the nearest detection is more than 5 years old, the label caps at MODERATE and is marked "historical" — the tree may be gone (Oregon actively eradicates) and conditions change.
Two tiers of evidence — never mixed
Lab-confirmed (Tier 1): points from the OakMapper official-confirmation archive and public agency records. SOD can only be diagnosed by a laboratory, so only these drive your label.
Community-reported (Tier 2): iNaturalist research-grade observations. Shown as context ("community reports nearby") and as hollow dots on the map — they never change your label.
If no lab-confirmed dataset is published (data permissions pending), scoring runs in a reduced mode: quarantine counties score MODERATE, everywhere else is honestly labeled NO DATA.
What the data can't tell you
- Absence of detections is not absence of disease. Surveys happen where volunteers are. "No nearby detections" means exactly that — nothing more.
- Positions are approximate. Non-agency detection coordinates are deliberately snapped to a ~1 km grid to protect landowner privacy, and iNaturalist points with obscured or low-accuracy coordinates are excluded from scoring entirely. Address geocoding is also interpolated — if you're near a band boundary, refine with the map pin.
- Detection data ages. Parts of the archive date to the OakMapper project (frozen 2017). The recency cap and per-point dates exist for exactly this reason.
- Oregon's quarantine boundary is approximated. ODA's quarantine is a ~515 sq mi delineated area around Brookings, not all of Curry County. Until we obtain the official boundary polygon, we use a radius approximation and say "in or near."
Sources & licenses
Every point in the published dataset carries its source, date, license, and a link to the original record. Only records whose licenses permit redistribution are published. Full guidance sources: UC IPM Pest Notes,COMTF,Oregon ODA,SOD Blitz.